About Me

In writing the "About Me" portion of this blog I thought about the purpose of the blog - namely, preventing the growth of Socialism & stopping the Death Of Democracy in the American Republic & returning her to the "liberty to abundance" stage of our history. One word descriptions of people's philosophies or purposes are quite often inadequate. I feel that I am "liberal" meaning that I am broad minded, independent, generous, hospitable, & magnanimous. Under these terms "liberal" is a perfectly good word that has been corrupted over the years to mean the person is a left-winger or as Mark Levin more accurately wrote in his book "Liberty & Tyranny" a "statist" - someone looking for government or state control of society. I am certainly not that & have dedicated the blog to fighting this. I believe that I find what I am when I consider whether or not I am a "conservative" & specifically when I ask what is it that I am trying to conserve? It is the libertarian principles that America was founded upon & originally followed. That is the Return To Excellence that this blog is named for & is all about.

Monday, December 16, 2013

Truce - The Enemy Of My Enemy Is My Friend

"They are using our members, & they are using the American people for their own goals.  This is ridiculous.  If you are for more deficit reduction, you are for this agreement."  - House Speaker John Boehner speaking to reporters after a closed door GOP meeting that reviewed the Ryan-Murray proposed two-year budget deal
 
"We have adults here in Washington that can deal with big problems." – House Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions emphasizing that the aforementioned budget deal demonstrated that the Republicans were capable of not shutting down the government on January 15
 
"It's a huge mistake to trade sequester cuts now for the promise of cuts later."  KY Senator Rand Paul expressing my thoughts exactly
 
  click on graph & table to enlarge
 
I love it when the comments precede the post.  In this Shakespearian case – "Hi Doug - Hope all is going well!  Just a quick note to let you know I am waiting with bated breath for your posting re Paul Ryan & the budget deal with Murray."  Seems this long time subscriber knew this one was coming.
 
Paul Ryan's budget deal with Patty Murray follows every other budget Ryan has made the past five years in that they all are frauds because every one of them has increased the deficit & the national debt despite Ryan's claims to the contrary.  This one could not leave the sequester alone which would have automatically reduced domestic & defense spending to $967-billion from $986-billion in fiscal year 2013.  As a result of the Ryan-Murray deal such spending will increase to $1,012-billion in 2014 & $1,014-billion in 2015 for a total spending increase of $62-billion for the two years above the budget caps agreed to in August 2011 – see table above.  To dispel any illusions re how draconian the sequester was please refer to the above table that shows spending going up even with the sequester in place – even the $986-billion was exceeded the first year by $2-billion.  Ryan is no budget hawk @ all & never has been.
 
The Ryan-Murray budget deal was mainly criticized by the Heritage Foundation, AFP, Freedom Works, & the Club For Growth because Ryan claimed it was indeed deficit reduction & did not raise taxes.  Referring to the deal's $85-billion in fee hikes to airline passengers & cuts in pensions of both federal workers & military personnel Senator Jeff Sessions (AL) said ". . . it's a fee increase to fuel a spending increase, rather than reducing deficits."  The $62-billion increased spending occurs the next two years & as always the bogus cuts occur 8 to 10 years from now meaning never.
 
Nevertheless the deal passed the House by a vote of 332- 92 (see below for the actual vote) @ 6:25 PM the night before the House went into recess for the Christmas holiday.  It now goes to the Senate for another last minute vote on Tuesday.  No wonder the above graph shows such a low rating for Congress.   
 
This is just another proof positive that the current Congress just does not have it within them to act financially responsible.  All of the above is the small potatoes part of the budget process, which never touched entitlements.
 
During all of this Boehner finally got some fire in his belly & it is all directed toward the Tea Party.  Now Boehner is the last person in the world to lecture anyone on deficit reduction.  I'm sure everyone even with the shortest of memories will recall the first major vote of Boehner's speakership in 2011.  Republicans had campaigned in 2010 to reduce spending by $100-billion.  After being sworn in, that was quickly & bogusly clarified to mean $100-billion on a prorated fiscal year basis that ultimately turned out to be $300-million in real spending cuts after all the smoke cleared.
 
As far as the complaints that Heritage & the others made before the deal was finalized – Ryan-Murray had telegraphed the main points of the deal long before it was finalized.  I received messages from AFP several days before the deal was finalized that very accurately described the final deal.  Also isn't it better to make your voice known before a deal is finalized so changes can be made?
 
The main thing Republicans received from the Ryan-Murray deal was avoiding another government shutdown & keeping ObamaCare's problems front & center in people's minds – these are two political basics right now but they are not enough to win the day & should be considered defensive. 
 
The Democrats received something too.  They wanted to move beyond the budget deal (i.e., not waste any more of BO's remaining time in office dealing with government shutdowns) & get on with comprehensive immigration reform, the farm bill (that includes expanding food stamps), & raising the minimum wage – these are all winning issues for Democrats & @ this point in our country's history could be fatal to the Republican Party & accordingly should be considered offensive (in more ways than one). 
 
Putting this all aside the House establishment Republicans (the 169 Ayes below – Team A) & the Tea Party Republicans (the 62 Noes below – Team N) should follow the principle the enemy of my enemy is my friend
 
This requires Teams A & N working out a truce that starts by recognizing that even combined they cannot defeat BO's policies for the next three long years.  The truce would allow Ryan to continue his budget work, un-criticized by the Tea Party who would accept that the point of Ryan's work is to keep the government open & not cause problems that the Republicans would undoubtedly be blamed for –this approach will provide the best chance to unseat Democrats in the 2014 midterm elections.  The truce would also forbid Ryan from declaring such work reduces the deficit unless it really does – Ryan's claims of financial responsibility infuriate the Tea Party & people like me.  Of course Boehner should stop criticizing the Tea Party also.  The two Teams should try to be helpful & not unduly controversial while letting ObamaCare collapse & in the interim voting for each issue as they see fit.  Ryan's budget work will attract enough Democrat support to keep business as usual rolling along in DC with issues like raising the debt ceiling coming up in February.  Most important each Team should make their own plan for all of these topics & consistently present them so every American is familiar with their alternatives.  Once the 2014 election campaign starts (& 2016 presidential campaign for that matter) both Teams can take the gloves off & campaign on their own principles & plans with the best Team winning the most congressional seats & fielding the Republican presidential nominee.  The public will have a clear choice based on principles instead of infighting sound bites & once again if the Republicans select a Romney-like candidate I'm sure many Tea Partiers will either stay home or vote for a third party candidate – but with the truce we @ least have the best turn @ bat possible.
 
As far as a deficit reduction plan I suggest that Four Points Highlight The Needed Change In Mindset first presented on RTE in January 2012 is a good starting point.  One of the four points even includes Ryan's Medicare premium support idea that was later so watered down by Mitt that it was barely recognizable.  We have the possibility that some from Team A will come over to Team N.
 
The chance of such a truce being drawn is remote because both sides hate each other so much.  Although I support Jim DeMint's Thirty concept I don't believe Republicans have to destroy each other along the way – the actual elections, starting with the primaries, provide plenty of opportunity for that.  Team A has to admit they are a group of centrist moderates & Team N has to accept that, without further criticism until a Republican candidate for president is found who has a chance to win – not like Dole, McCain, or Romney.  To the extent that something like this proposed truce does not happen the Democrats chances of winning everything increases proportionately.
 
We will learn which Team the Senate members are on after Tuesday's votes on the House budget bill – one vote for cloture that needs 60 votes & the other vote on the actual bill that needs only a majority.  It will be very interesting if the Senate does not pass this bill – cloture could be the sticking point.
 
Although many establishment Republican pundits like Karl Rove think Republicans are not only in & of themselves a winning alternative to the hapless Democrats in the 2014 mid-term elections they think it is odds on that a Republican will win the presidency in 2016.
 
At this last stage of Death of Democracy only a giant mindset change of the American people away from government dependence would give anyone other than a Democrat a chance @ victory in 2016.  First – the Democrats will run a woman (Michelle Obama or Hillary) & if the statistic of 54% of the 2012 electorate being women is repeated they will have a tremendous immediate advantage.  Second – BO won 70% of the needed 270 electoral votes in Democrat gimmee states like CA, NY, & IL; he won 32% of the needed electoral votes in another group of reliable Democrat states by over 5% each, meaning that a repeat performance by Michelle or Hillary would put them over the top without the need of contesting any of the so-called battleground states like OH, FL, NC, or VA.
 
With regard to the 2014 mid-term elections the December 11 McClatchy-Marist poll found that not only are most Americans unhappy with the job Congress is doing they are particularly dissatisfied with Republican members of Congress by a net eleven points.  See the two graphs below – one shows congressional Republicans with a 22% approval rating & the other shows congressional Democrats with a 33% approval rating.
 
To have any chance Teams A & N must bide their time without destroying each other & come up with credible plans consistently presented as well as an inspirational presidential candidate in 2016.  But if we don't have a giant change in mindset of the American people we have nothing anyway. 
 
   click on graphs to enlarge
 
 
FINAL VOTE RESULTS FOR ROLL CALL 640
(Republicans in roman; Democrats in italic; Independents underlined)

      H J RES 59      RECORDED VOTE      12-Dec-2013      6:25 PM
      QUESTION:  On Motion to Recede and Concur in the Senate Amendment with Amendment
      BILL TITLE: Making continuing appropriations for fiscal year 2014, and for other purposes


Ayes Noes PRES NV
Republican 169 62   1
Democratic 163 32   6
Independent        
TOTALS 332 94   7


---- AYES    332 ---

Aderholt
Amodei
Andrews
Bachus
Barber
Barletta
Barr
Barrow (GA)
Beatty
Becerra
Benishek
Bera (CA)
Bilirakis
Bishop (NY)
Bishop (UT)
Black
Blackburn
Blumenauer
Boehner
Bonamici
Boustany
Brady (PA)
Brady (TX)
Braley (IA)
Brooks (IN)
Brownley (CA)
Buchanan
Bucshon
Bustos
Butterfield
Calvert
Camp
Campbell
Cantor
Capito
Capps
Capuano
Cárdenas
Carney
Carson (IN)
Carter
Cartwright
Cassidy
Castor (FL)
Chaffetz
Clark (MA)
Clay
Cleaver
Clyburn
Coble
Cohen
Cole
Collins (GA)
Collins (NY)
Conaway
Connolly
Cook
Cooper
Costa
Courtney
Cramer
Crenshaw
Crowley
Cuellar
Culberson
Cummings
Davis (CA)
Davis, Rodney
DeGette
Delaney
DelBene
Denham
Dent
Deutch
Diaz-Balart
Dingell
Doggett
Doyle
Duckworth
Duffy
Edwards
Ellmers
Engel
Enyart
Eshoo
Esty
Farenthold
Farr
Fattah
Fincher
Fitzpatrick
Fleischmann
Fleming
Flores
Forbes
Fortenberry
Foster
Foxx
Frelinghuysen
Gabbard
Gallego
Garamendi
Garcia
Gerlach
Gibbs
Gibson
Goodlatte
Granger
Graves (GA)
Graves (MO)
Grayson
Green, Al
Green, Gene
Griffin (AR)
Griffith (VA)
Grimm
Guthrie
Gutiérrez
Hahn
Hanna
Harper
Hartzler
Hastings (FL)
Hastings (WA)
Heck (WA)
Hensarling
Herrera Beutler
Higgins
Himes
Hinojosa
Honda
Horsford
Hudson
Huffman
Huizenga (MI)
Hultgren
Hunter
Hurt
Israel
Issa
Jackson Lee
Jeffries
Jenkins
Johnson (GA)
Johnson (OH)
Johnson, E. B.
Joyce
Kaptur
Keating
Kelly (IL)
Kelly (PA)
Kennedy
Kildee
Kilmer
Kind
King (NY)
Kinzinger (IL)
Kirkpatrick
Kline
Kuster
LaMalfa
Lamborn
Lance
Langevin
Lankford
Larsen (WA)
Larson (CT)
Latham
Latta
Lewis
Lipinski
LoBiondo
Loebsack
Lofgren
Lowenthal
Lowey
Lucas
Luetkemeyer
Lujan Grisham (NM)
Luján, Ben Ray (NM)
Lynch
Maffei
Maloney, Carolyn
Maloney, Sean
Marino
Matheson
Matsui
McAllister
McCarthy (CA)
McCaul
McCollum
McDermott
McGovern
McHenry
McKeon
McMorris Rodgers
McNerney
Meehan
Meeks
Meng
Messer
Mica
Michaud
Miller (FL)
Miller (MI)
Miller, Gary
Miller, George
Moore
Moran
Murphy (FL)
Murphy (PA)
Nadler
Napolitano
Neal
Noem
Nolan
Nunes
Nunnelee
O'Rourke
Owens
Palazzo
Pascrell
Pastor (AZ)
Paulsen
Payne
Pelosi
Perlmutter
Perry
Peters (CA)
Peters (MI)
Peterson
Petri
Pittenger
Pitts
Polis
Price (GA)
Price (NC)
Quigley
Rahall
Rangel
Reed
Reichert
Renacci
Ribble
Rice (SC)
Rigell
Roby
Roe (TN)
Rogers (AL)
Rogers (KY)
Rogers (MI)
Rokita
Rooney
Ros-Lehtinen
Roskam
Ross
Rothfus
Roybal-Allard
Royce
Ruiz
Runyan
Ruppersberger
Ryan (OH)
Ryan (WI)
Sarbanes
Schiff
Schneider
Schock
Schwartz
Scott (VA)
Scott, Austin
Scott, David
Sensenbrenner
Serrano
Sessions
Sewell (AL)
Shea-Porter
Sherman
Shimkus
Shuster
Simpson
Sinema
Sires
Smith (NJ)
Smith (TX)
Smith (WA)
Southerland
Speier
Stewart
Stivers
Stutzman
Swalwell (CA)
Takano
Terry
Thompson (CA)
Thompson (PA)
Thornberry
Tiberi
Tierney
Tipton
Titus
Tonko
Tsongas
Turner
Upton
Valadao
Van Hollen
Vargas
Veasey
Vela
Wagner
Walberg
Walden
Walorski
Walz
Wasserman Schultz
Waxman
Welch
Westmoreland
Whitfield
Williams
Wilson (FL)
Wilson (SC)
Wittman
Wolf
Womack
Woodall
Yarmuth
Yoder
Yoho
Young (AK)
Young (IN)

---- NOES    94 ---

Amash
Bachmann
Barton
Bass
Bentivolio
Bridenstine
Brooks (AL)
Broun (GA)
Burgess
Chabot
Chu
Cicilline
Clarke (NY)
Coffman
Conyers
Cotton
Crawford
Daines
DeFazio
DeLauro
DeSantis
DesJarlais
Duncan (SC)
Duncan (TN)
Ellison
Frankel (FL)
Franks (AZ)
Fudge
Gardner
Garrett
Gingrey (GA)
Gohmert
Gosar
Gowdy
Grijalva
Hall
Hanabusa
Harris
Heck (NV)
Holding
Holt
Hoyer
Huelskamp
Johnson, Sam
Jones
Jordan
King (IA)
Kingston
Labrador
Lee (CA)
Levin
Long
Lummis
Marchant
Massie
McClintock
McIntyre
McKinley
Meadows
Mullin
Mulvaney
Negrete McLeod
Neugebauer
Nugent
Olson
Pallone
Pearce
Pingree (ME)
Pocan
Poe (TX)
Pompeo
Posey
Richmond
Rohrabacher
Salmon
Sánchez, Linda T.
Sanchez, Loretta
Sanford
Scalise
Schakowsky
Schrader
Schweikert
Slaughter
Smith (MO)
Smith (NE)
Stockman
Thompson (MS)
Velázquez
Visclosky
Waters
Watt
Weber (TX)
Webster (FL)
Wenstrup

---- NOT VOTING    7 ---

Bishop (GA)
Brown (FL)
Castro (TX)
Davis, Danny
McCarthy (NY)
Radel
Rush
 
 

4 comments:

  1. Doug - your comment below is most telling:

    But if we don't have a giant change in mindset of the American people we have nothing anyway.

    The Left continues to relentlessly brand the private economy and the rich as exploiters of all others. The Left pushes insane economic policies such as substantially increasing the minimum wage, increasing food stamps, and continuing massive public debt explosion ( even bye bye sequester - a most moderate measure ).Media economic illiterates promote this propaganda non stop. The Dependency on Government mindset continues to get stronger. Maybe only a severe economic onslaught, much more severe than the 2008-09 Great Recession, may alter this mindset. Maybe a best case scenario may be for major foreign hedge funds to pull 10's of $billions of $ denominated securities. At same time what if one of the hedge funds' manager succinctly states to the US - your debt explosion and nanny state economic polices have caused us to implement these measures to reduce our risk in your shaky currency? Bottom line is that without strong economic leadership in the US (Ted Cruz, Rand Paul - time to step it up,by factors of 100), maybe our only saving grace will be honest foreigners.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Doug - The price of integrity is expensive all one needs to do is ask former Senators Dick Lugar of Indiana and Bob Bennett of Utah. Currently six Republican Senators, including Mitch McConnell, Thad Cochran, Pat Roberts, and dealmaker Lindsey Graham are facing tough primary battles. The Tea Party is getting stronger and weak Republicans have much to fear.

    Paul Ryan is a shill. A stooge planted by the Republican Party to complete the budget ruse. The Republican Party is betting his name will lend credibility to the budget shell game at least till the 2014 elections. The sequester was another ruse as you so eloquently explained in your posting. The “kick the can down the road” rhetoric is getting old but at some point we will run out of road.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Excellent commentary and dead on. I always found it interesting that Ryan was portrayed as "the #1 Republican Budget Buster". It was obvious that people and the media were looking at form over substance. As has happened throughout history the truth is many times quite different than what is being portrayed.

    Because of people like Boehner and Ryan I quit the Republican Party and moved into the "Undeclared" camp. I suspect quite a few others are taking similar action.

    Merry Christmas and wish my best to Carol,

    ReplyDelete
  4. RTE, I was surprised with the truce you called for. You have been harsh with Ryan's positions over the past couple years and I think disappointed that he wasn't willing fight for real budget restraints. I read last week in a piece in the WSJ that Reagan did what he said he was going to do, unlike the current President who says all the words but just doesn't do the action. It is a tough call since we don't have DeMints 30% and I really can't envision that ever happening until the US is on her knees and there is nothing more to steal from the makers.

    ReplyDelete