About Me

In writing the "About Me" portion of this blog I thought about the purpose of the blog - namely, preventing the growth of Socialism & stopping the Death Of Democracy in the American Republic & returning her to the "liberty to abundance" stage of our history. One word descriptions of people's philosophies or purposes are quite often inadequate. I feel that I am "liberal" meaning that I am broad minded, independent, generous, hospitable, & magnanimous. Under these terms "liberal" is a perfectly good word that has been corrupted over the years to mean the person is a left-winger or as Mark Levin more accurately wrote in his book "Liberty & Tyranny" a "statist" - someone looking for government or state control of society. I am certainly not that & have dedicated the blog to fighting this. I believe that I find what I am when I consider whether or not I am a "conservative" & specifically when I ask what is it that I am trying to conserve? It is the libertarian principles that America was founded upon & originally followed. That is the Return To Excellence that this blog is named for & is all about.

Friday, January 23, 2015

Business Failures & Worker's Declining Income Portray The Real SOTU But BO's Approval Bumps Up

". . . when small & medium-sized businesses are dying faster than they're being born, so is free enterprise.  And when free enterprise dies, America dies with it.  Let's get one thing clear: This economy is never truly coming back unless we reverse the birth & death trends of American businesses." – Jim Clifton, Gallup CEO & Chairman speaking about business survival in America
 
click on graphs to enlarge
 
The above remarks by Jim Clifton & the information on the above graphs conveys the current state of the union much clearer than anything BO said in Tuesday night's SOTU address where BO again presented totally misleading information on just about every issue.
 
Since 2008 employer business startups have been exceeded by business failures.  Gallup reports there were 400,000 new business startups & 470,000 business failures in 2011.  The U.S. now ranks twelfth among developed nations in business startups behind such countries as Hungary, Denmark, Finland, New Zealand, Sweden, Israel, & Italy – the country is heading in the wrong direction but is still higher in this regard than BO would like.
 
We can see that a deteriorating trend was already underway when the keeping of these records began in 1977 – such deterioration coincides with the country's descending stages of Death Of Democracy.  In the 70s & early 80s America was in the complacency to apathy stage with a slight uptick thanks to President Reagan that lasted a few years.  Since then we have declined to the apathy to dependence stage right before our eyes & BO is trying his best to accelerate the dependence back into bondage stage during his last two years in office.
 
Death Of Democracy describes the path a country follows when it operates with one big government party with two wings who take turns being in power playing loose with the citizen's money.  BO did not cause the problem but he sure is trying to seal the deal as more & more regulations & taxes make running a small business virtually impossible thereby leading to increasing government dependence.
 
The graph below shows another terrible state of our union - the over $2,000 in inflation adjusted decline in the median household income from 2009 through 2013 under BO's presidency.
 
click on graph to enlarge
 
But, despite all this economic misery, since the first of the year every poll measuring BO's job approval has increased with the Washington Post – ABC News poll coming in @ 50% approval.  In fact BO is now in a statistical tie with President Reagan's approval ratings @ the start of his seventh year in office.
 
click on graph to enlarge
 
Now I know that the Washington Post brings up suspicion among conservative readers of RTE but all the other polls also show good bumps up for BO.  The above graph shows 10% gains for BO among Dems, moderates, & white evangelical Christians, 22% for Hispanics, & 19% for adults younger than 30.  BO may lose some of these groups for a short time from time to time, but except for the evangelicals, they always come back to him & really any Democrat.
 
Many showing favor for BO in the above graph may not have the economy & the poor jobs condition described above as their top priority.  For instance, last fall Hispanics could only be pleased with BO's executive action that was the biggest rewrite of U.S. immigration policy in decades that removes the threat of deportation for millions of illegal immigrants – having Ana Zamora, an illegal immigrant as a guest in MO's SOTU box, does not hurt either.  Zamora has gained work authorization through BO's pro-amnesty policies, obtained a work permit, a Social Security number, a driver's license, & her parents are eligible to participate in another one of BO's programs regarding parents that was announced by BO in November.  Thanks to Iowa Congressman Steve King for pointing this out to me.
 
BO's plans call for tripling the maximum child-care tax credit to $3,000, expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit to childless adults, & creating a new $500 credit for households where both adults work – the new spending programs are paid for by $320 billion in new taxes over ten years coming theoretically from revenue from higher top capital-gains tax rates & new inheritance taxes.
 
In addition 1) BO would like Congress to pass legislation that would increase paid sick leave thereby extending government's reach in making policies for businesses & 2) make community college free for some low income workers picking them as winners while choosing people who had responsibly used the popular 529 accounts to save for their children's education as losers.  BO said that lowering taxes of the working class will be "putting thousands of dollars in their pockets each year."
 
It is this nine word statement that is the key to understanding why many people have no interest in the poor job condition of America – BO plans on "putting thousands of dollars in their pockets each year."  By making government bigger the welfare class is spread even further making more people dependent on government – exactly per BO's design. 
 
I recently presented a report by the Manhattan Institute that showed
there has been no increased inequality in America from 1987 to 2012 when measured by real spending per person by income quintile – the best measure of a person's financial well being.  Every politician knows this.
 
Over the years Congress & our state elected representatives have done a masterful job of distributing a portion of the tax revenues to people in the lower quintiles so that the ratio of the top to the bottom quintiles remained constant – hence no increased income inequality & BO's proposals in the SOTU will only add to the precision with which this socialization of America continues. 
 
 

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Senator Tom Coburn's Farewell Address

Last month the great Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn gave an emotional farewell address on the Senate floor after announcing earlier that he was retiring before the end of his term reportedly because of medical reasons. 

Readers of RTE will recall that I had hoped over the past few years that new Senate members like Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Mike Lee, & Ted Cruz would caucus with Jim DeMint & Tom Coburn to form a pro-American block of senators.  Now, in 2015, both Jim DeMint & Tom Coburn are no longer even in the Senate – how fragile our Republic is.

I present below two videos of the great senator's farewell address:

The first is the portion of his address that dealt with the Senate Oath & its relationship to the Constitution, & the fact that the oath not only has nothing to do with bringing back funds & grants for states but solely swears in senators to "protect the United States Of America, its Constitution, & its liberties" –one of the themes of RTE.

The second video is the entire emotional address

Maybe I am the eternal optimist  - I noticed that NJ Senator Cory Booker was presiding over the Senate during Dr. Coburn's address.  My hope of hope is that Senator Booker, whose political potential is unlimited, is positively inspired for America by Tom Coburn - this impressive magnificent man who lives & governed in the image of our Founders.

Sunday, January 11, 2015

December Unemployment Report Masks The Misery Of U.S. Job Market

"If you've got a part-time job & still can't find full-time work – or if you've just given up because you can't find a good job to replace the one you had – you are counted as part of the drop in unemployment."  MA Senator Elizabeth Warren speaking @ the AFL-CIO National Summit on Raising Wages this past Wednesday.
 
click on graph to enlarge
 
Until the past six years, coinciding within BO's presidency, the headline unemployment figure known as U-3 would suffice to give an accurate enough portrayal of the health of the U.S. job market.  When this number went up things were not good & when it went down good paying jobs were becoming more plentiful – but not any longer.
 
But the last several years you could not rely on this one number each month to verify that your own job seeking experience was in line with the general trend presented by the Department of Labor reports.  Instead, if you wanted answers as to why you or your friends, family, or neighbors were not participating in the seemingly improving unemployment picture, you had to analyze the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tables. 
 
For instance in these tables you would find that part-time workers were counted as employed if they worked as little as one hour a week thereby bringing the U-3 unemployment rate down.  This is inline with Elizabeth Warren's point above – i.e., a drop in U-3 can come about because people can't find a job & have dropped out of the labor market.
 
Now over the years enough posts have been written on RTE illustrating the above type points so that subscribers to RTE were not fooled last Friday when it was reported that U-3 fell from 5.8% in November to 5.6% in December. 
 
In December there were 252,000 jobs created (240 K in the private sector & 12 K in the public sector) but what were the quality of those jobs?  Hourly wages in the private sector actually dropped 5 cents in December from November & the labor force decreased by 273,000. 
 
Commentary taken directly from the BLS report for December - the number of long-term unemployed was unchanged @ 2.8 million – 31.9% of the unemployed; the civilian labor force participation rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point to 62.7 percent; the employment-population ratio was 59.2 percent for the third consecutive month; the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (also referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in December at 6.8 million; 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier.
 
To understand the impact of the decline of the civilian labor force participation rate (LFPR) please look @ the graph below.  The LFPR in December, 2007 (when the recession began) was 66.0%.  If 66.0% of the civilian noninstitutional working age population were working or looking for work today, we'd have a labor force of 164.4 million workers, which is 8.3 million more than our actual labor force of 156.1 million.  Do your own arithmetic to determine how long it will take for the country to return to a pre-recession LFPR of 66.0% if job growth is 252,000 per month & the civilian noninstitutional working age population increases 183,000 per month like both did in December.
 
click on graph to enlarge
 
But of course there is more - nearly a third of people aged 22 to 26 with a Bachelor of Arts degree either don't have a job or are working @ one that doesn't require a university degree.  The numbers are similar for young people with vocational degrees – source WSJ January 8, 2015.
 
In 1992, 100 workers supported 92 nonworkers – mainly the young, the elderly, & those with disabilities.  By 2012, 100 workers were supporting 102 nonworkers, a number that is projected to rise to 107 by 2022.  Source William Galston of the Brookings Institute.
 
Accordingly more & more people continue to rely on rotten part-time jobs, going on a government program or two to receive benefits, moving in with friends or family to save money, & spending down whatever wealth they can lay their hands on.  The flow into the productive wealth creating labor force continues to decline – all per BO's destructive purposeful design.
 
It has been hard to find a truly accurate measure of the jobs condition in America since BO came into office – we just know it is terrible.  U-6 – still 11.2% in December - includes the total unemployed (U-3), plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force including discouraged workers who have stopped looking for work, plus the millions working part time who want full time employment.  I have recommended a U-7 category.  My proposed U-7 would include all of U-6 plus those employed full time who make a fraction of their former pay.  U-6 & U-7 give the most complete picture of those relying on their wealth spend down to live on, whether that of friends or family, which is an excellent measure of the unhealthiness & misery of today's job market.