About Me

In writing the "About Me" portion of this blog I thought about the purpose of the blog - namely, preventing the growth of Socialism & stopping the Death Of Democracy in the American Republic & returning her to the "liberty to abundance" stage of our history. One word descriptions of people's philosophies or purposes are quite often inadequate. I feel that I am "liberal" meaning that I am broad minded, independent, generous, hospitable, & magnanimous. Under these terms "liberal" is a perfectly good word that has been corrupted over the years to mean the person is a left-winger or as Mark Levin more accurately wrote in his book "Liberty & Tyranny" a "statist" - someone looking for government or state control of society. I am certainly not that & have dedicated the blog to fighting this. I believe that I find what I am when I consider whether or not I am a "conservative" & specifically when I ask what is it that I am trying to conserve? It is the libertarian principles that America was founded upon & originally followed. That is the Return To Excellence that this blog is named for & is all about.

Sunday, June 21, 2020

Balancing The Return To Economic Growth While Protecting Against Covid-19

“You may not like me but you have to vote for me or else your 401(k) will be destroyed by the Democrats”.  -  President Trump speaking @ a MAGA rally before the Covid-19 pandemic struck. 
Trump had thought the economy was the key to his winning re-election but China’s deceitful hiding of the Wuhan coronavirus & then promoting its spread around the world provided the excuse for state & local government officials to shut the economy down thereby taking the issue away unless Trump convinces voters he is best @ rebuilding the economy.
After the political judicial decisions this past week the importance of the President appointing judges & Supreme Court Justices, that require Senate approval, has also re-emerged as another key issue not only for the presidency but also Republicans retaining control of the Senate.

The above graph was part of the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) response to NY Senator Chuck Schumer’s request regarding the comparison of CBO’s May 2020 Interim Projections of Gross Domestic Product & Its January 2020 Baseline Projections.
In short, Schumer wanted to see CBO’s analysis of the damage done by the government’s shut down of the economy under the pretense of protecting people from Covid-19 – although he would not have expressed it exactly that way.
CBO projects that the economy will produce $7.9 trillion less growth in real inflation-adjusted GDP (2019 dollars) when comparing their January forecast of just before the government shut down to right after the results of curtailed consumer spending from business closings & re-openings, with social distancing, & the drop in U.S. investment in the energy sector could be estimated.  Mathematicians in the readership should test their ability to estimate the $7.9 trillion using the area under the curve on the above graph – a fun exercise.
Although the CBO projects growth it is not fast enough to catch the January baseline projection until the fourth quarter of 2029.
In a separate study, a week after the aforementioned CBO report, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced that they had determined that the U.S. had entered a recession in February. 
The NBER’s recession dating committee does not go by the rule-of-thumb recession definition of two consecutive quarters of declining GPD but rather determines a recession start date using data for employment & production & incomes minus government benefits.  A recession begins when an economy reaches a peak of activity & ends when the economy reaches its trough.  Between trough & peak, the economy is in an expansion so this recession could turn around quickly & not exceed two consecutive quarters of declining GDP.
But regardless of economic statistics about how long a recession might last or when it started the damage done by the government’s shut down of the economy has been devastating as the shutdown sent the U-3 unemployment rate from a fifty year low of 3.5% in February to a post-World War II high of 14.7% in just two short months.  This means millions of people might not go back to their old job or even their old industry if demand is reduced for goods & services that social distancing precludes. The first quarter of 2020 contracted @ a 5.0% annual rate (2nd estimate – BEA) even though only the last two weeks of the quarter were directly affected by the government shut down orders.  The decline in payrolls shows that in one month all the jobs added in the past decade were wiped out.  The April jobs report showed U-6, the government’s broadest measure of unemployment & underemployment, climbed to 22.8%.  Many other workers took pay cuts – I have recommended a U-7 category be added which would include all of U-6 plus those employed full time who make a fraction of their former pay.
Another 1.5 million people filed new applications for unemployment benefits in the week ending June 13.  Over forty million Americans have lost their jobs in 2020.  Economists estimate that it will take one, two, or even three years to get back to pre-Covid levels because the entire globe is affected.  This is a different measure than the CBO calculation detailed above.
But there is a balance between quickly reviving the country’s economic activity from the depths shown above & having both workers & consumers willingly returning to the old normal - unafraid of infection by Covid-19.   A good place to start is the age profile from the following graphic.

Social distancing, wearing masks, & maneuvering around plexiglas shields can only add to the cost of doing business & is a constant reminder to both workers & consumers of the supposed danger that has been brainwashed into the unsuspecting American citizenry.  Robert Rosenkranz writes in the WSJ that in reality “it is extremely rare for people who are otherwise healthy to die of Covid-19.  Most of the people who die with Covid-19 – 98% in one study – have @ least two other major life-threatening conditions, such as diabetes & heart disease.  Surprisingly little data has been collected  to sort out these multiple causes”.  More on Mr. Rosenkranz’s last point below.
How we respond to hotspots or a second wave of infections will be very important to our freedom, standard of living, & economic future.  The evidence is clear that the government did almost nothing right on our first go round starting in March – shutting down schools where American children are virtually immune to the Wuhan coronavirus, transporting recovering Covid-19 patients to close contact with the most vulnerable elderly & aged people in nursing homes, & paying people more in unemployment benefits than they were earning while working have all been detriments to returning to normal life.  If there is a next time the government should butt out.  Everyone knows the common sense precautions for avoiding Covid-19, the seasonal flu, or the common cold (also caused by a coronavirus) & we will be quite capable of policing ourselves, much like we are doing now. 
If you encounter people who are reckless or foolish in this regard simply avoid them with no explanation, because they don’t deserve one, if they are that reckless & foolish to be so cavalier about a disease that people die from every day & doctors & nurses die from working their fingers to the bone in intensive-care-units.
We have learned that the Wuhan coronavirus spreads in close-up face-to-face interactions for extended indoor periods of @ least fifteen minutes especially in crowded events, poorly ventilated areas, & places where people talk, sing, or cheer loudly – & that it especially attacks Americans over 60 who are medically fragile.  About 80% of Covid-19 cases in America are mild, moderate, or asymptomatic.  The Wuhan coronavirus hits younger people harder in poor countries than in America because of demographics, a greater prevalence of underlying conditions @ an earlier age, & weaker if not precarious healthcare systems.  See graphic below of coronavirus deaths in Mexico & the U.S. 

The statistics show that Americans under 60 can resume a normal life using common sense to not go looking for trouble or infection while those 60 & older, especially the elderly who are medically fragile with serious underlying health conditions wait for a vaccine or other treatment to be developed before returning to a pre-Wuhan coronavirus life.  Sorry to those over 60 but the Wuhan coronavirus is a constant threat until a vaccine or other treatment becomes available.  This may not be easy for the elderly as a life of separation from loved ones could continue for some time before the all-clear is signaled.
People 65 & over make up 11% of the U.S. workforce thereby further complicating the trade off between working & staying safe.  Many of this 11% will have to be replaced.  It includes 15% of dentists, 13.3% of family doctors, 12.5% of surgeons, & 20.9% of school bus drivers.  These numbers increase when you add in people 60 to 65.
We need Johns Hopkins or other services to provide meaning data not just figures on the number of deaths.  Providing the percentage of infections & deaths as a function of the number of people tested is much better information than just the number of infections & deaths – i.e., of course the total numbers will go up as the number of tests increases.
Also, the Covid-19 statistics should be presented each day along with other statistics to put the danger in perspective.  How many deaths are recorded each day for Covid-19 (& the ages & whether or not there were underlying medical conditions), the seasonal flu, cancer, suicide, abortion, traffic accidents, drug overdoses, & communicable diseases would provide a much more complete picture & understanding than we currently have of the Covid-19 risk.
In summary, it looks like the economic recovery has started which is bad news for the opponents of President Trump.  For over two months the federal government (the swamp @ the CDC) deceptively & intentionally misrepresented warnings & recommendations for fighting the Wuhan coronavirus while blue state governors kept their states locked down with the belief that Trump would be blamed for the ensuing economic disaster.  And of course the hostile anti-American media plays right along with headlines such as “Virus Deaths Swell as Crisis Deepens” or “Millions More File Jobless Claims” – what did they expect with the mandatory shut downs?  Such headlines should have been written months before.
All of this hatred & obsession with Trump is so mindless that you can only complete the circle when you see it is deliberate. 

Sunday, June 7, 2020

One Big Covid-19 Happy Family - Against Trump

The last four posts that focused on the Wuhan coronavirus & the disease it causes, Covid-19, have produced two questions that I have been asked repeatedly:
1.  How did the mathematical models produced by Imperial College London have such an outsized influence on worldwide government responses to the Covid-19 pandemic, especially when the College’s past forecasting record has been so poor?
2.  Is the worldwide lockdown, & subsequent destruction of commerce all over the world, part of the Democrats playbook to “get Trump”?
This post will show how the answers to these two questions are interrelated & make for one big Covid-19 happy family – against Trump. 
The Imperial College London issued Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand on March 16, 2020 that called for social distancing of the entire population & home household quarantine of entire family members until the disease cleared the family, supplemented by school & university closings – all until a vaccine becomes available potentially 18 months from now, if ever.  The report predicted that transmission of Covid-19 would quickly rebound if interventions were relaxed.
The report went on to predict that 81% of the U.S. population would be infected over the course of the epidemic thereby resulting in 2.2 million deaths in the United States unless the above stated mitigation & isolation policies were implemented.
All of these Imperial College London points were believed & followed by governments all over the world despite the numerous examples highlighted on this blog over the past two months of them being wrong – such as the Diamond Princess cruise results, & Sweden never being shut down & not reaching catastrophic death rates forecast for such societies.  First we were told that masks were ineffective & not necessary – now we have to wear them or fear being arrested or fined $1,000.  We were told by local leaders in Democrat states there was a shortage of ventilators & after ventilators were delivered as requested many were not used & given away.  We were told to lockdown by sheltering in place in our homes only to find out that the Wuhan coronavirus is transmitted 18 times greater in homes among family members than @ the beach or parks.
The above is just the tip of the hypocrisies we have been fed.  Click here to hear Liz Wheeler of One America News Network give a more complete list.

Here is the graph from the Imperial College London’s report that illustrates the distribution of the 2.2 million deaths forecast in the U.S. – test your knowledge of the area under the blue curve to confirm the projected 2.2 million deaths for yourself.

The Imperial College London report went on to predict critical care bed capacity would be exceeded by the second week of April peaking @ 30 times greater than the maximum supply in the U.S.  Of course this too never happened as evidenced by the Navy hospital ship Comfort never being needed to anywhere near its full capacity for any healthcare reason after docking @ Pier 90 in Manhattan on emergency call.
The table below, from the report, is the one thing the Imperial College London got right & of course the American medical authorities from the CDC, who relied on the report, got exactly backwards.   The young showed no sign of contagion from Covid-19 & yet our officials shut down schools & universities while Governors like Andrew Cuomo committed the tragic mistake of doing everything but driving the bus that sent 4,300 NY recovering Covid-19 patients to nursing homes thereby contributing to the greatest number of deaths being to the elderly in nursing homes.  For that Cuomo should resign in disgrace never to be heard from again – except in the November presidential election he is the leading candidate to unseat the inept Biden as the Democrat nominee thereby making him the favorite to win the presidency even though he is not even running.

Fifty percent of the deaths in America caused by Covid-19 have been to people in nursing homes, another 30% have been people over 65 not in nursing homes, & the other 20% is everyone else.
All of these errors caused the U.S. to distance themselves from the original Imperial College London model. 
Dr. Deborah Birx, who has served as the U.S. Global Aids Coordinator for both BO & Trump since 2014, & currently serves as the Coronavirus Response Coordinator for the White House explained that the White House model has changed & it now follows the Murray model of the Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation (IHME) – an independent global health research center @ the University of Washington.
It is telling that Birx never identified IHME correctly in two television appearances here & here.  The doctor in charge does not know who she is working with amplifies my belief that we should have no government official in charge @ all – we should all be in charge of our own lives.
So what is the connection for all of the above incompetence? - it is the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in Seattle. 
The Gates Foundation has ties to Imperial College London going back @ least to 2009 when the two institutions found they had similar goals fighting diseases especially in poor countries.  Gates awarded grants to several Imperial projects including a $14.5 million grant to help the college improve & expand healthcare access in developing countries.  Specifically, Neil Ferguson, producer of the model that called for 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. due to Covid-19, co-founded the Medical Research Council (MRC) Center for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, based @ Imperial College London, & has received tens of millions of dollars in annual funding from the Gates Foundation.  MRC works closely with the UK National Health Service, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), & is tasked with supplying the World Health Organization (WHO) with “rapid analysis of urgent infectious disease problems”.
But the Gates Foundation actually founded the University of Washington’s IHME that Dr. Birx tried to spit out in the videos above with a $105 million grant over 10 years ago.  This largest donation in UW’s history was surpassed by a $279 million grant to continue & expand pioneering programs in fields of interest to Bill Gates.  The Gates Foundation also funded a $210 million building to house IHME & the Department of Global Health.  Bill Gates had been impressed by the work of Dr. Christopher Murray, who Gates lured to IHME.  It is the Murray model that the CDC is using today to issue guidelines to protect your health.
The above shows a very cozy relationship between Bill Gates & Imperial College London, University of Washington – Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation, World Health Organization, & the U.S. Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.  But there is more to this working relationship between these organizations & the world’s second richest man. 
The worldwide lockdown (question #2 above) starts with China, just like Democrats, wanting to get rid of Trump @ any cost with the end justifying the means – any means.  China has been preparing itself for world dominance for as long as I can remember & the tariffs Trump has levied on Chinese exports to the U.S. have been very costly to the Communist Chinese economy regardless of who pays for the tariffs.
So when a deadly novel coronavirus was discovered in Wuhan, Hubei province China, the last week of December, 2019, the Chinese government started a plan to protect the other parts of China & expose the new virus to the rest of the world & the U.S. in particular.  Travel from Wuhan to other parts of China, especially Beijing & Shanghai, was banned, but flights to the unsuspecting rest of the world were continued thereby spreading the virus.  It was no concern to the Communist Chinese that New Yorkers, Italians, Iranians, Brazilians & people in other hot spots were killed – they were all merely disposable pawns.  The target of the Communist Chinese deceit was America & Trump.
On January 31 Trump banned foreign nationals who had recently been in China from entering the U.S. when the prevalence of the Wuhan novel coronavirus was still being hidden & denied by Communist China – but the damage had already started.
Santa Clara County, California confirmed that the first death in the U.S. was on February 6 meaning that the virus was present in the U.S. @ least by mid-January.  Before social distancing was practiced & stay @ home orders were issued hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people had attended college & NBA basketball games, hockey games, the NFL playoffs, the Super Bowl, Super Bowl parties, Broadway plays, movies, & had gone to restaurants, work, schools, & universities.  In short, there was plenty of time & opportunity for people to have been exposed to the contagious virus before we knew what was happening.
Both Bill Gates & the WHO made excuses for China’s behavior & shielded Beijing from calls for an investigation of China’s non-existent response to the emerging Wuhan coronavirus.
But the WHO’s record against the U.S. & world health safety is much greater. 
The WHO not only lied about Covid-19 on behalf of the Communist Chinese, they ignored Taiwan’s warnings about human to human transmission of the Wuhan coronavirus, they legitimized China's Wuhan coronavirus death statistics that cannot be believed even today, they failed to vote that the Wuhan coronavirus posed an emergency because the Communist Chinese told them to, & they condemned Trump’s January 31 Chinese travel ban.  Source Liz Wheeler – OANN.
But there is one other important thing the WHO never mentions & that is the part that inextricably links China with the WHO, Bill Gates, Imperial College London, University of Washington – Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, & the Democrat Party; namely that Peng Liyuan is a World Health Organization goodwill ambassador – a celebrity advocate of the World Health Organization who uses her talent & fame to advocate for health & well being.  Peng Liyuan’s talent is that she is a singer.  In fact she is a Major General in the Communist Chinese army who sang to soldiers after the Tiananmen Square massacre.  See below.

Peng Liyuan is also the wife of the President & General Secretary of the Communist Chinese Party Xi Jinping.