First - We Have To Wake Up

The first member ever of our group is a very conservative Republican who was ecstatic when W won the 2004 presidential election.  Knowing how much the statists hated losing to W once, let alone twice, I remember telling our friend that he better enjoy it because if "they" every get organized the Republicans will never win another presidential election in his lifetime.  My thoughts were based on the principles of Death Of Democracy & looking around @ the people I saw on the streets of Somerville & other towns - my thoughts did not take into account BO, community organizers, MoveON.org, ACORN or any of the others who were soon to emerge.  W was the catalyst & inspiration for the statists to get organized - if the weak outnumber the strong why should the weak ever lose another election they argued?

 

BO rose to the top quickly with his following of the young, minorities, the extreme left, women, people feeling white guilt, & of course the hostile anti-American media backing any thing he did or said.  The fact that his ideology was in line with the statists, but many years ahead of someone like Hillary, only helped propel him forward even faster with the Democrat machine.  They have been successful in redefining & continuing to redefine the political center as BO's policies even as many conservative talk show hosts continue to proclaim that America is a center-right country - if so how in the world did we get BO & large statist majorities in both the House & Senate?

 

Now I don't like for one minute what is happening in our country but I do believe it is important to accurately understand the enemy & the problem we are facing - starting with the basics that we are outnumbered.  Below is a piece from today's WSJ by Michael Medved that gives you the numbers in far more detail than my back of the envelope common sense observations cited above do.  After reading this piece Carol said to me - "this is awful."

 

We have been asleep @ the switch & let ourselves be painted into a corner - the answer is not to go back & forth voting in Republicans & then Democrats from district to district.  It is way too late for that.  We have to start adding to our decent politicians like Jim DeMint, Tom Coburn, Jeff Flake, & Mike Pence with Tea Party candidates who bring the innocence, purity, & integrity needed whether they win or lose the next election because without them we are about to lose all of the elections one way or another, if we continue to have elections @ all.

 

Why Obama Is Still the Favorite in 2012

Hispanic voters hold the balance of power—and Republicans aren't winning their support.

By MICHAEL MEDVED

Republicans feel heartened by President Obama's standing in recent polls, which show that only a minority of Americans want him re-elected in 2012. But savvy Democratic analysts look at the same numbers and confidently predict another victory when the president seeks his second term. A breakdown of voter sentiment by race can help clarify the apparent contradiction.

According to a revealing poll from Quinnipiac University (covering 2,181 registered voters in late July), only 36% of American voters would support Mr. Obama against an unnamed Republican candidate "if the 2012 election were held today." The main reason for the president's performance in this survey is his pathetic standing among self-identified white voters: Only 28% of the nation's demographically dominant racial group plans to back him for a second term.

Republicans look at those numbers and say there is no way that Mr. Obama can recover without bringing about a major turnaround with the white majority. Yet Democrats point to the figures and argue that the president will safely win a second term even with this dismal performance in the white community—as long as he replicates his 2008 popularity among African-Americans, Latinos and Asians. They also believe he may do even better among Latinos and Asians when he runs in 2012.

Is this reasoning realistic or ridiculous?

The truth is that Mr. Obama's low standing among white voters is nothing new. He lost that group to John McCain in 2008, winning only 43%. If he fails to improve his terrible standing in the current Quinnipiac poll, and if all currently undecided white voters (25%) break down in the same way as those who have already made up their minds, he'd end up with 38% of white votes.

That's obviously a worse performance than four years ago, but it would yield approximately the same percentage of the overall electorate. Why? Because all observers agree that white voters will comprise a smaller piece of the total voting population than the 74% they represented two years ago. With strong increases in the Latino and Asian voting blocs—due to general population growth and sharply increasing rates of citizenship through naturalization—the "non-Hispanic white" electorate will likely slip to 70%, or perhaps slightly lower.

If the president performs as poorly in the white community as current polls indicate, he will still win an electoral majority as long as he commands the same percentage of nonwhite voters (83%) that he won in 2008. This seems entirely possible, and based on current polls, it looks likely.

The Quinnipiac survey indicates that Mr. Obama still enjoys huge popularity among people of color, winning his trial heat against an unspecified Republican 44 to 1 among blacks (87% to 2%) and nearly 2 to 1 among Latinos (49% to 26%). In other words, the president maintains his near unanimous support in the black community and has dipped only slightly among Hispanics, where he drew a commanding 67% of the vote in 2008.

Only 65% of Latino voters expressed a candidate preference in the survey's trial heat. That means if Mr. Obama can sway the bulk of the 35% of Latinos who say they "don't know" or are currently uncommitted, the president will replicate his victory formula from 2008. Undecided Hispanic citizens, representing as many as three million votes in the next election, may hold the balance of power in a competitive race.

These numbers help to explain the president's current position on immigration reform and his efforts to block Arizona's tough new immigration law. That legislation is overwhelmingly resented among Latino voters: 66% of Hispanics say they disapprove of it, and 71% say they don't want a similar law in their own states. By nearly 2 to 1 (59% to 32%), these Latino voters want immigration reform to emphasize "integrating illegal immigrants into American society" over "stricter enforcement." This is in stark contrast to both white voters and black voters, who strongly prefer "stricter enforcement."

The administration and its strategists reason that nothing they do on illegal immigration will undermine the enthusiastic support for the president in the black community, or drive his popularity lower among whites. With only 28% of white voters currently committed to backing Mr. Obama for re-election, his standing is already near rock bottom.

But if the Democrats can use the immigration debate to drive the president's numbers even higher among Latinos than in 2008, they can't lose. Viewed another way, if Republicans continue to conduct the immigration debate in a way that drives their numbers even lower among Latinos than in 2008, they can't win. Talking about changing the Constitution to eliminate birthright citizenship, for instance, may bring short-term gains, but it will produce disastrous long-term results in the key voting bloc that is likely to decide the next presidential race.

For Democrats, this analysis offers reason for hope in a dark, dysfunctional season. For Republicans, the numbers suggest a strong basis for recalibration as they look ahead to 2012.

Mr. Medved is the host of a daily, nationally syndicated talk radio show and author of "The 5 Big Lies About American Business" (Crown Forum, 2009).