About Me

In writing the "About Me" portion of this blog I thought about the purpose of the blog - namely, preventing the growth of Socialism & stopping the Death Of Democracy in the American Republic & returning her to the "liberty to abundance" stage of our history. One word descriptions of people's philosophies or purposes are quite often inadequate. I feel that I am "liberal" meaning that I am broad minded, independent, generous, hospitable, & magnanimous. Under these terms "liberal" is a perfectly good word that has been corrupted over the years to mean the person is a left-winger or as Mark Levin more accurately wrote in his book "Liberty & Tyranny" a "statist" - someone looking for government or state control of society. I am certainly not that & have dedicated the blog to fighting this. I believe that I find what I am when I consider whether or not I am a "conservative" & specifically when I ask what is it that I am trying to conserve? It is the libertarian principles that America was founded upon & originally followed. That is the Return To Excellence that this blog is named for & is all about.

Sunday, April 12, 2020

The Purpose Of Flattening The Covid-19 Curve

click on graphic to enlarge
The above bell shaped curve on the left is the one the federal government's medical experts have been talking about flattening ever since the Wuhan coronavirus started infecting Americans with Covid-19.  The central idea of flattening this curve is for the curve's peak to fall below the healthcare system's capacity as shown by the bell shaped curve on the right & the horizontal line directly above this curve's peak. 
In accordance with the government's medical expert's theory, the curve's peak, representing the maximum number of patients under treatment @ any one time, must fall below the healthcare system's capacity to handle these patients so that the healthcare system's capacity is not overwhelmed, meaning not just shortages & rationing of ICU beds & ventilators but also the medical personnel themselves – i.e., doctors & nurses.  The government's theory is that the longer the society practices social distancing through shutting down society, other than the parts of the economy deemed essential by government officials, with stay @ home orders the flatter the curve will be.  But this will only slow the spread of the virus - it will not stop it.  When the society is opened up again, no matter how slowly, the curve will start to rise again toward the healthcare system's capacity before the society & economy are shut down again with an ever increasing cost to both.  Until a vaccine or specific treatment for Covid-19 are developed &/or a large percentage of the population becomes immune to the infection this process will not end. 
Click here to hear Dr. David Price, a critical care pulmonologist (respiratory physician) currently caring exclusively for Covid-19 patients in NYC @ Weill Cornell Hospital share his experience in treating this disease.  In the last half of the video Dr. Price answers questions.  The video has had over 1.3 million views & was sent to me by a very dear friend.
Click here to watch the Surgeon General, Vice Admiral Jerome Adams, show how to make a face mask from simple home supplies.  Whether you believe in wearing a mask or not - wearing a mask makes it harder to touch your face with your hands which Dr. Price explained is especially important when you are out in public touching things that could be contaminated with the Wuhan coronavirus.  Hands to face is thought to be the principal way people contract Covid-19.
Next is a checklist from a typical local government regarding protecting yourself from the Wuhan coronavirus.
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How to protect yourself.

  • Wash hands often with soap and water for 20 seconds.
  • Avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands.
  • Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
  • Clean and disinfect things you touch often.
  • Cough or sneeze into a tissue and put tissue in trash.
  • If possible, stay home when you feel sick.
My personal physician, & charter member subscriber to this blog, told me decades ago the 5 keys to good health are: 1) get a good night's sleep, 2) eat a nutritious diet, 3) get physical exercise, 4) get mental stimulation, & 5) avoid stress.
The above medical keys to good health are not far removed in principle from my mechanic's list for maintaining a car's trouble free service: regularly change the oil & air filter & lubricate where needed.
Over the last three to five weeks all of us have practiced @ least some of the above human points with virtually all of us following social distancing separations of being @ least 6 feet away from other human beings when out in public.  The government's theory is that social distancing buys us time so that the healthcare system's capacity is not exceeded – whether in the first wave of the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus or subsequent waves. 
The next post will analyze whether or not the cost of this purchase of time is too high.


  1. Thanks for sharing Doug. I especially liked the ICU doc’ talk. Any updates from him..?

    1. Will try to find out & post accordingly.

  2. This virus has certainly slowed all of us down which I believe is a plus. Nice analogy of the car. I am happy that we withdrew aid to WHO. Need to send you an email about China!

  3. Doug
    Great post and chart. I respond April 20 and look forward to opening of economy. Regarding the high cost of a deep 4 week lock down that has resulted in 22 million unemployed and 13% unemployment rate:

    One can strongly argue we needed that so as to not overwhelm capacity of our medical care. But we are passed that point and must aggressively move to virtually fully reopen the economy in next 2 months, else we will rival The Great Depression with 25% + unemployment. It is very possible that Corona death rate may be well under 1% of those infected. This is per more data.

    Closing schools was dead wrong and very damaging intellectually and emotionally to our students. The argument that this was necessary so students with the virus but no symptoms would infect many is very week. Social distance and taking care of ones health and immune system are key.

    Personally I like the Sweden approach which prioritized the aged and unhealthy, kept schools open, had population practice social distance while working and going to restaurants.

    Looking forward to next post.

    Sent from my iPhone

  4. Doug,
    I liked the emplied question in your latest post. My thoughts are that Adult questions are not being asked at the state levels. Adults make decisions that are based on knowledge of history, real time data and facts; and rational good old fashioned common sense. All of this seems to be in short supply. Fear is not a good place from which to make any decision. Courage is a very rare trait held by only a few in government right now.

    1. Unknown is identified as TS who had trouble with the comment line online.