Answer To Reagan's 1980 Question Haunts GOP Today In Midterms

"Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" - part of Ronald Reagan's closing remarks during the Presidential Debate in Cleveland  on October 28, 1980 directed to a national television & radio audience, specifically contrasting his platform with the record of incumbent President Jimmy Carter who was his opponent on the stage.

To see why two thirds of the people in the country today are answering President Reagan's question - "NO" - regarding the last two years, thereby possibly endangering continuous Republican control of the House & Senate after the midterms, look no further than the fact that real inflation-adjusted average hourly wages of all private employees were down 0.7% over the past 12 months including the last six months in a row where the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased faster than wages meaning far too many people are working more & more for a dollar that is buying less & less.  The data also reveals that @ no time during the last two years have wages kept pace with the rate needed to improve the average American's standard of living.  See graphics below.

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Not keeping up with inflation pretty much describes the affordability crisis in a nutshell.  Specifically it is the high prices of gasoline, groceries, housing, & healthcare that constantly nag @ people, annoying & distressing them wherever they go.  

And it's not just the last two years that have put people in such a sour mood.  There has not been one month since February, 2021 where nominal year over year average hourly earnings increased faster than inflation @ a rate sufficient, when repeated month after month, for people to realize a noticeable improvement in their standard of living over their lifetimes - defined as an annual pay increase equal to the rate of inflation plus 1.75%.  Since this empirical formula has to be realized every year over a 40 year working career in order to double a starting salary in real inflation adjusted terms, it will be a monumental task to make up for the terrible performance of the last 67 months.  People may not know the formula but they do sense their standard of living has been debased.  See graphic below.

 

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All of this misery was caused by the out-of-control deficit spending of Trump in his first term & Biden.  The graphic below shows that Trump authorized $3.6 trillion of Covid-19 stimulus spending & Biden $1.9 trillion.  Since Trump was out of office when inflation picked up he blamed Biden who in turn blamed Putin's war with Ukraine for the price misery.  The graphic below shows that inflation was picking up before Biden added one dollar in stimulus spending & that Putin's war did not start until a year later meaning the root cause of the highest inflation in forty years was caused by Trump & Biden - the two biggest deficit spenders in the country's history, & this spending continues today.

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Overall $35 trillion of the country's $40 trillion national debt has accumulated in the 21st century with $20 trillion, or half of the national debt, coming from Trump & Biden in the last ten years.  See the graphic below that shows the growth of the national debt from 1789 to the end of Biden's term. Another $4 trillion under Trump has been added in less than 2 years & is not shown.  Bush doubled the cumulative national debt since the nation's founding, then BO doubled that amount, & Trump & Biden completed the compounding to date by doubling that amount again in the last ten years.

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Since Trump took office in 2025 the price of gasoline has gone from $2.47 a gallon & has been as high as $4.56 per gallon recently while diesel has gone from an average retail price for on-highway ultra-low sulfur diesel @ $3.715 per gallon to as high as $6.53 per gallon.

Grocery prices increased 28.1% (CPI Grocery Index) from February, 2020, just before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, until the end of Biden's presidency - a very large increase in a very short period of time making the price rise painfully noticeable.  Since then, under Trump, grocery prices have increased @ a 2.7% annual rate meaning that Trump certainly has not cut grocery (& consumer) prices as he repeatedly promised in the 2024 campaign.  Trump said that a vote for him meant "your groceries will be cheaper" & promised to bring down the cost of food, gas, & everyday household items frequently claiming he would end inflation & make living in America affordable again starting on day one of his administration.  These types of claims are making it hard for Republican candidates to explain why none of this came true.  Republicans could explain that in September the grocery index cooled to +1.8% YoY, due to decreases in dairy products that mathematically brought the index down for instance.  But 1.8% is still an increase on top of all the other price increases & if your personal diet relies heavily on steak, fish, seafood, & coffee, your personal inflation rate at checkout will still feel much higher. 

Since February the 30 year mortgage interest rate has gone from slightly below 6% to as high as 7.5% recently thereby adding $4,000 per year in payments on a median priced house of $403,300 with a 20% down payment.  Most down payments are less than 20% - first time home buyers typically put down 10% which adds another $500 per year in borrowing costs.  Obviously workers' pay has not kept pace with housing-mortgage interest rate costs.

Healthcare costs have increased tremendously over the years.  The average employer-sponsored healthcare insurance family plan annually averages around $20,000 per employee.  Over the past two years healthcare costs increased 7% to 8%+ again outpacing worker compensation.

The above situations & statistics do not bode well for the party in power - the GOP.

But there are additional issues that do not have numerical or measurable results that are troubling for GOP House & Senate candidates.  And most of  the voters' anti-incumbent animosity toward the party in power was caused unnecessarily by Trump & Republican incumbents' fealty to him..

For starters most GOP congressional candidates have trouble pointing to any legislative accomplishments the last two years, usually settling on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) ceremoniously signed into law on July 4, 2025 as their jewel that stopped a huge income tax increase on millions of Americans that would have occurred automatically after December 31, 2025.  The trouble with this braggadocious claim is that the huge tax increase that would have gone into effect after New Year's Eve 2025 was set in stone when Trump's Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 needed the Senate's budget reconciliation rules to pass, due to the small Republican Senate majority.  Specifically, the "Byrd Rule," requires that any legislation passed by reconciliation cannot increase the federal deficit beyond a 10-year window so Trump & the slim Republican Senate majority of 2017 sunsetted the TCJA after eight years @ the end of 2025 because extending it any further would have increased the deficit in violation of the Byrd Rule.

It is hard to get a lot of credit for preventing some terrible thing from happening that you put in place to happen that most people were unaware of to boot.  Just imagine if the OBBBA had not passed in 2025 & everyone would have gotten a large income tax increase starting New Year's Day 2026.  Do you think anyone other than Republicans would have gotten the blame?  Would Republicans want to explain the gimmickry used in passing the TCJA of 2017?

To make matters worse regarding the OBBBA, Trump put in no tax on tips, OT, & Social Security - all misnomers because each has limits that when exceeded result in tips, OT, & seniors paying income tax on these items.  But those who did receive some benefit found that the tariffs Trump willy- nilly implemented ate away that tax benefit.

The tariffs also are making life difficult for northern border Republican Senate candidates like Susan Collins in Maine & Mike Rogers in Michigan who see Americans paying more because of the tariffs or not getting the products they want @ all like Canadian Club whiskey.  Rogers broke with Trump on the trade war saying "Here in Michigan we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war now."

Trump's long list of broken campaign promises is also making GOP candidates feel uneasy & is keeping them on defense in their races:

• Trump promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war on his first day in office, or even before taking office -  “It will take me no longer than one day.  I know exactly what to say to each of them (Putin & Zelensky).”  Instead of ending the war Trump is now funding it by purchasing 300,000 tons of Russian diesel fuel - a deal made in desperation to lower diesel prices in America & for a very short time @ that.  In addition Trump has waived implementing sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil after signing a bill championed by the late SC Senator Lindsey Graham, thereby providing Putin with more income for the Ukraine war.  Michigan GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers once again broke with Trump saying "I'm just a little skeptical that this will work in the way that the administration wants it to work.  I don't think we can give Putin an inch" & I add because he will take a country mile.  The Iowa GOP Senate candidate, Ashley Hinson, said "We need to lower diesel prices, but I don't think we need to be making a deal with Russia to do it."
  
  
• Trump promised “all hell to pay in the Middle East” & stated that those responsible for abducting Americans in Israel on October 7, 2023 would be "hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long & storied History of the United States of America" if the hostages were not freed by Hamas before his second inauguration on January 20, 2025.   All 20 surviving American hostages were released by Hamas to Israel on October 13, 2025  as part of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire and peace agreement & the remains of the final deceased American hostage  were recovered & returned to Israel on January 26, 2026 - over 1 year later than Trump's deadline.
  
  
• During the presidential campaign Trump rarely brought up Jeffrey Epstein unprompted.  But when asked, both Trump & Vance said they would release the DOJ files.  A month after Trump took office there was an obvious dragging of feet on what came to be known as the release of the Epstein files & some awkward moments like when Attorney General Pam Bondi said on February 21, 2025 "It's sitting on my desk right now to review."  Four months later Bondi was still clarifying what she was going to release.  After many twists & turns Trump signed into law the Epstein Files Transparency Act on November 19, 2025 (Trump signed because the EFTA had passed the House 427 to 1 & passed the Senate via unanimous consent) that ordered the release of the entire Jeffrey Epstein-related files to the public within 30 days, i.e., December 19, 2025.  What has been released is so heavily redacted that it is useless.  Today there still are millions of pages that have not been released.

• And of course during the campaign Trump repeatedly vowed to lower the cost of living "on Day One" & bring down "the price of everything" that would end inflation & "make America affordable again." Trump pledged to slash energy & electricity prices by half (50%) within 12 to 18 months of taking office & stated he would push gasoline prices below $2 a gallon.  He frequently stood in front of items like bacon, milk, eggs, & flour, promising to immediately lower supermarket & grocery bills.   He claimed he would drive down mortgage rates so people could afford "2% again" & make home financing & refinancing much cheaper.  The saddest part of these promises of over two years ago is that today Trump stands in front of reporters' cameras & says inflation is "defeated" or "we don't have inflation" with such false conviction that he looks like he actually believes it himself.  This is delusional.  If Trump has vanquished inflation why did Social Security just announce a 3.6% cost of living increase?

Now none of the above gives anyone a reason to vote for a Republican & the Democrats only offer "We're not Trump" but you don't have to drill down very far to find that even the ones who can appear reasonable during a six minute interview all boil down to the same big government spenders who think taxing billionaires is the answer to every ill they can throw money at.  And they have grown so bold that they now openly call themselves socialists.  

And on the socialist score Trump is again no help to GOP congressional campaigners.  Trump has repeatedly stated that "America will never be a communist country" & will "never be a socialist country" framing his remarks around opposition to progressive policies & Democrat candidates like @ Mount Rushmore on the 4th of July during  America's 250th-anniversary celebrations & in last month's government-funded PSAs.  

Midterm GOP candidates took this lead & ran with it until Trump pulled the rug out from under them during the week of September 21.  First, on Monday of that week Trump went to Gracie Mansion, the home of NYC socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani, & said " I want him to be a great mayor, & he’s certainly got potential, got great potential."   

Then on Thursday of that week Trump rolled out the red carpet with a state visit for the authoritarian General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, Xi Jinping.   See photo below of Chinese flags flying over the Oval Office.

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Xi returned Trump's adoration by showing up @ the state dinner in his Mao suit.  See photo below.

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After Xi left Washington Trump completed the week's trifecta by inviting Russian President Putin to the G20 meeting in Miami, Florida in December.  

Just what were House & Senate candidates campaigning against socialism & communism to make of Trump's adoration of socialist & communist politicians?

And all the while Trump talks about the U.S. never becoming a socialist country he is actively pursuing making it just that.  The U.S. government, under Trump, has acquired or proposed direct ownership stakes, equity, or control (such as "golden shares" or veto rights) in approximately 30 companies through CHIPS Act grants, defense funding, & industrial policy interventions.  Key companies where the federal government has taken or agreed to take ownership or control include:

• Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC): ~10% stake (valued at about $8.9 billion) converted from CHIPS Act funds, making the government its largest single shareholder. 
• MP Materials (NYSE: MP): ~15% stake acquired via Department of Defense funding for rare earth minerals. 
• U.S. Steel Corporation: A "golden share" granting the federal government veto rights over major corporate decisions as a condition of approving Nippon Steel’s acquisition. 
• Lithium Americas Corp. (NYSE: LAC): A 10% equity stake tied to lithium mining projects. 
• Trilogy Metals Inc. (NYSE: TMQ): A 10% stake (plus warrants) connected to the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects & Ambler Road permits in Alaska. 
• Westinghouse: An 8% stake in the nuclear power company. 
• GlobalFoundries: A proposed Commerce Department equity stake attached to a quantum foundry award. 
• USA Rare Earth: A 10% stake in a mine-to-magnet supply chain deal.
• Vulcan Elements & PsiQuantum: Recipient companies tied to federal loans & Commerce Department awards requiring minority government equity stakes. 

In several blatant vote-buying fiscally irresponsible moves proving that he learned nothing about the Covid-19 stimulus checks that fueled the worst inflation in 40 years or just does not care about it, or both, Trump has sent $90 to every eligible Medicare recipient (about $2 billion) to "offset some of the cost of your October Medicare premium," $500 checks to nearly 1 million people to compensate for what he called "excessive ObamaCare fees," $8 billion to farmers to make up for their costs for tariffs & the high cost of diesel, gasoline, & fertilizer, &  promised $5,000 to every adult in America if the Republicans win the House & Senate in the midterms.  The latter giveaway is estimated to cost over $1 trillion, an amount similar to the Covid-19 stimulus payments that kicked off the inflation that is the root cause of the affordability crisis that has plagued the nation the last six years.

The above mentioned $5,000 checks are reminiscent of the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) Dividends of $5,000 checks per American citizen household that Trump promised from the expected $1 trillion to $2 trillion savings resulting from slashing federal spending, waste, fraud, & abuse & rewarding taxpayers using a percentage of the savings generated by the initiative  - but actual results fell far short of their initial targets & DOGE ceased operations & shut down on July 4, 2026.

And the biggest issue for many disheartened MAGA republicans is the breaking of the promise to keep America out of endless wars.  Trump frequently campaigned & spoke against "endless wars" or "forever wars," stating that the job of the U.S. military is to defend the nation rather than rebuild foreign countries or solve ancient conflicts.  During a Jan. 6, 2024, rally before the Iowa caucuses, Trump told supporters that returning him to the White House would allow the country to “turn the page forever on those foolish, stupid days of never-ending wars. They never ended.”  And Trump repeatedly stated he would stop wars, claiming he could do so "with a telephone call" and that he was the only modern president to have no new wars during his first term.  Well that claim is no more - & it's not just Iran but also terrorist groups that Iran supports like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi militants in Yemen, & militias in Iraq.  These enemies are fascist Islamic terrorists who strictly follow Sharia law, making our fight against them the most endless of endless wars, especially after killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026.  To date Moody's Analytics estimates that the Iran war has cost the average American household more than $2,000.  To see what a headache the Iran war is for Republican candidates try to name one who is running on the issue of fighting the war with Iran.

We have Trump's personal interest issues of the White House ballroom, the arch near the entrance to Arlington National Cemetery, the retention pond liner, his name on the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, & upgrading a public golf course near the national mall as well as major corruption and self-dealing claims against the second Trump administration focused on personal enrichment, crypto ventures, foreign gifts, pay-to-play pardons, & conflicts of interest - each of which will be the subject of future investigations @ one time or another.

The most important point to takeaway from this post is that there is not one incumbent (two possible exceptions mentioned below) of any party running for reelection that has been working on solving the problems highlighted hereinabove.  They are all focused on their own reelection.  Speaker of the House Mike Johmson recessed the House from July (23 - 27) to August 30 so incumbents could head home for their summer break to campaign for reelection.  Johnson then adjourned the House on September 17 sending lawmakers on a seven-week recess ahead of the midterm elections not returning until November 9.  The Senate's summer break ran from August 8 until September 14 followed by a recess from September 30 until November 9.  When either chamber of Congress was in session did any elected representative ever propose solutions to the Social Security & Medicare insolvencies that are bigger problems than the high price of gas & are projected to happen in the 4th quarter of 2032 - i.e., before the terms end of the people elected to the Senate next week.  And the answer is "of course not."

As you can see from the dates it is all about them - not the country or you.

The elephant or donkey in the room is that the two party system makes fools out of us as we go from one to the other, but always sliding toward the Death of Democracy of the American republic.  The truth is that there are only two incumbents that I have found worth considering voting for based on their voting records - Brian Fitzpatrick (PA district #1 - covers all of Bucks County & a small part of Montgomery County just north of Philadelphia) & Warren Davidson (OH district #8 - spans west-central & southwestern Ohio. Major cities & communities in his district include Hamilton, Fairfield, Middletown, Eaton, Greenville, Troy, & parts of the northern & western suburbs of Cincinnati).  Do your own homework if you live in either of their districts.

One of the themes of several posts this year has been to return to excellence by not casting a wasted vote defined as voting for someone you don't believe in.  We should be trying to find people whose principles we do believe in.  Under this standard it should be hard for anyone to vote for an incumbent Republican or Democrat for reelection based on the report on the issues in this post.  You're just going to get more of the same voting for incumbents other than Fitzpatrick or Davidson.

Not just RTE but much of the country has been thinking this way.  There are 100 congressional districts with 173 candidates who do not self identify as Republican or Democrat.   You can find the list of the candidates by state by clicking here.  One candidate I came across worthy of consideration is Sarah Zabel running in Idaho's first district.  Check your ballot for your own non incumbent Democrat & Republican candidates & then do your homework - if it is ever going to make a difference not voting for candidates of the two major parties it is this election.

In addition to the 100 congressional districts mentioned above there are 520,000+ elected positions in the U.S., but under the current system, 70+% are uncontested.  If you ask "How’s that working out for us?" November 3 is the next chance you will have to do something about it via write-ins.  People in the circles I travel in let me know that Saritha Komatireddy running for NY state Attorney General against incumbent Letitia James is someone to keep an eye on.  Click here to watch a recent debate - I set the URL to begin with Saritha's opening statement which is very impressive & set the dynamic tone that Tish James could not keep up with.

The Libertarian Party is fielding hundreds of candidates in many states.  Click here to see the entire list (also click on "Where We stand" @ the top of this webpage to see if you are more libertarian than you think by reading "Our Platform" & "The Issues") & once on the webpage search by state to see if you have any Libertarian candidates.  Lana Leguia is running as a Libertarian in NJ-07 but will not appear on the ballot due to a court conflict with required signatures.  You can write Lana's name in (In 2010 Incumbent Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski was re-elected as a write-in candidate despite having been defeated in the Republican primary so it can be done).  See if you agree that Lana is head & shoulders better than the Republican or Democrat candidates.

And Michele Tafoya, running for a U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota, deserves a long look against Tim Walz's Lieutenant Governor, Peggy Flanagan, who participated in one of the most incompetent administrations in memory.  Although not a member of the DSA, Flanagan has been endorsed by Bernie Sanders, leader of the Socialist movement in America who has run for elected office as an Independent since 1981, pointing out that people other than Democrats & Republicans do win elections.  Flanagan's progressive program overlaps with many DSA points like universal single payer healthcare euphemized as Medicare For All, universal childcare, paid family leave, increased public education funding, & ending arms sales to Israel.  Michele has distanced herself from the toxic MAGA label in Minnesota that her opponent has tried to put on her falsely, & downplayed Trump's endorsement framing her campaign as independent & focused on Minnesota.  If you live in Minnesota Michele could be a refreshing change.

In any event unseating the two party system will not be easy but if people can't see the need for it now then God bless us.

Let me close with a "don't" & a "do."

Don't vote for any candidate who wants to, by a simple slim majority, end the Senate filibuster, pack the Supreme Court with four more justices, end the Electoral College, & add DC & Puerto Rico as states.   This type of activist is lazy & unwilling to do the hard work of advocating for political change in a constitutional due process way to convince his countrymen of his perceived benefit of such radical changes.  This type of move, if it can be pulled off, will inflict the tyranny of a small temporary majority on almost half the country thereby continuing or even amplifying the polarization of our fragile republic.  Such a decision should require the buy-in from all the citizens.

And do vote for any candidate who proposes, as a first step to solving the affordability problem, the stabilization of the value of the currency relative to the price of gold because we won't bring prices & wages in line to raise our living standards until we do.